Apple on Track to Beat Samsung for the First Time in 14 Years
Apple is poised to reclaim the crown in the global smartphone market — and this time, it may hold onto it for years.
According to new data from Counterpoint Research, Apple will ship roughly 243 million iPhones in 2025, surpassing Samsung’s estimated 235 million units. If the projection holds, it will mark the first time since 2010 that Apple outsells its Korean rival in annual global smartphone shipments.
Apple is expected to claim 19.4% of the worldwide market, narrowly edging out Samsung at 18.7%.
Shipments represent devices sent to retailers — not direct sales — but they remain a core indicator of consumer demand and manufacturer confidence.
iPhone 17 Series Fuels a Global Surge
The blockbuster success of the iPhone 17 lineup, launched in September, is the biggest driver behind this shift.
- U.S. iPhone 17 sales (first 4 weeks): +12% vs. iPhone 16
- China iPhone 17 sales (first 4 weeks): +18% vs. iPhone 16
Counterpoint cites an approaching major replacement cycle, as millions of consumers who bought phones during the COVID era are now due for upgrades.
Senior analyst Yang Wang said the inflection point “is unlocking the strongest iPhone refresh wave in years.”
Samsung Faces Pressure From China’s Low–Mid Tier Assault
Samsung’s weakness isn’t due to a slowdown in its flagship models — it’s the increasing dominance of Chinese brands in the low- to mid-range tiers.
Brands like Xiaomi, Vivo, and Honor are aggressively expanding in emerging markets. Counterpoint warns this could stall Samsung’s ability to reclaim the No. 1 position anytime soon.
Apple’s Long-Term Edge Strengthens
Counterpoint Research expects Apple to keep the top spot through 2029, supported by several structural advantages:
1. A Massive Second-Hand iPhone Base
From 2023 to Q2 2025, 358 million used iPhones were resold worldwide.
These users represent a huge pool of future upgraders — and most will stick with iOS.
2. Tariff Relief + Strong Global Demand
The recent U.S.–China trade truce reduced expected tariff exposure, keeping Apple’s supply chain and pricing more stable than anticipated.
A weaker U.S. dollar and improving consumer sentiment also boosted demand globally, especially in emerging markets.
3. A Bigger Product Lineup, Including Foldables
Apple is reportedly planning:
- iPhone 17e (entry-tier model) in 2026
- A foldable iPhone
- A major Siri overhaul
- A full iPhone design revamp in 2027
Expanding across more price bands gives Apple a broader reach — and greater protection against Android competition.
WSA Take
Apple’s climb back to the #1 smartphone slot isn’t just about a hot product cycle — it’s about ecosystem dominance, a massive upgrade wave, and a maturing premium market that Apple is uniquely built to own. With a historic second-hand funnel feeding future upgrades and a strategic push into new price tiers, Apple isn’t just catching Samsung — it’s setting up to lead the decade.
Read our recent coverage on Nvidia’s fragility as Big Tech chip competition intensifies.
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Disclaimer
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