The Mega-IPO Era Might Finally Be Back
For years, the hottest companies in the world — SpaceX, Stripe, ByteDance — stayed private while valuations ballooned into the hundreds of billions. But a potential SpaceX public listing may crack the dam wide open.
If the rocket giant lists anywhere near its private valuation targets — ranging from $800 billion to $1.5 trillion — it immediately becomes the largest IPO in history and sets the tone for the next cycle of public markets.
Bankers say investor appetite is there.
A company of SpaceX’s scale would be a “must-own” across institutional and retail money, according to multiple ECM veterans.
The logic is simple:
If a $1 trillion private company goes public, you can’t afford to sit out.
Why Now? Private Market Gravity Is Shifting
After years of cheap capital, private fundraising is tightening. LPs want liquidity. Investors want exits. And large companies like SpaceX are simply too big to be acquired.
Many bankers argue that — despite the mythology — mega-companies do need public markets eventually. Not for cash, but for:
- Liquidity
- Transparency
- Employee equity recycling
- Stable long-term capital planning
And if SpaceX opens the door, the rest of the centicorn class will follow.
The Valuation Problem
SpaceX is expected to generate roughly $15B in revenue in 2025, growing to as much as $24B in 2026. Those are real numbers… but nowhere near what traditionally justifies a trillion-dollar valuation.
Skeptics argue that the math doesn’t yet make sense.
Supporters counter that SpaceX isn’t a normal company — it’s simultaneously:
- The US leader in commercial spaceflight
- Operator of the largest satellite constellation on Earth
- The backbone of global satellite internet
- A future player in direct-to-cell communications
It’s rare to find a company that owns the infrastructure, the market, and the distribution all at once.
Still, governance concerns linger.
Running SpaceX as a public company while its CEO also runs a trillion-dollar automaker and an AI startup raises eyebrows among institutional investors.
The True Market Impact: What Happens If SpaceX Goes First
A SpaceX IPO at even 5% float would require selling $50–75B of stock — immediately dwarfing the largest IPO ever completed.
If it succeeds, it dramatically rewrites public-market expectations:
- The IPO window reopens for extremely large firms
- A flood of similarly sized companies may follow
- Passive index funds will be forced to buy enormous new constituents
- Return dispersion widens — huge wins for some, major FOMO for others
As one banker put it:
“Large deals have their own gravity.”
If SpaceX lists, everyone else must decide whether to get pulled into its orbit.
The Path: Traditional IPO or Direct Listing?
For companies sitting on mountains of cash, a direct listing becomes increasingly attractive.
No dilution.
No massive capital raise.
Just immediate liquidity and public trading.
The Coinbase, Palantir, and Roblox playbook may return — but this time at valuations 10–20× larger.
The Clock Is Ticking
Private markets feel liquid today.
But they always do — until they’re not.
A downturn, a funding freeze, or geopolitical shock could slam the door shut.
And insiders holding private stock for 8–12 years are losing patience.
At some point, the only path left is public.
WSA Take
A SpaceX IPO would be the single most important market event of the decade. Not because of its valuation — but because of what it unlocks.
If SpaceX goes public, every major private tech giant will face the same question:
Do we stay private and hope liquidity holds, or do we follow the leader and let the market decide our real value?
Investors should expect volatility, massive capital rotations, and a renewed IPO cycle.
The 2026 market could look very different from the past five years — with mega-cap startups stepping into the spotlight and rewriting what “public company” scale even means.
Read our recent coverage on WSA’s Midday Movers Report.
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Disclaimer
WallStAccess does not work with or receive compensation from any companies mentioned. This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct independent research before investing.
