S&P 500 Earnings Growth Holding Firm
Fourth-quarter earnings season is now more than halfway complete — and results are tracking stronger than initially expected.
According to FactSet data, roughly 59% of S&P 500 companies have reported results. Analysts currently estimate Q4 earnings per share growth of 13%, above the 8.3% increase projected heading into the reporting period.
If sustained, that would mark:
- The 10th consecutive quarter of annual earnings growth
- The 5th straight quarter of double-digit EPS expansion
Tech companies have once again driven much of the upside revision, supported by aggressive AI-related capital expenditures across the hyperscaler landscape.
Artificial intelligence, trade policy shifts, and a widening consumer divide continue to shape the broader macro narrative.
Moderna Beats on Vaccine Sales
Moderna shares jumped after the company reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue, supported by resilient U.S. COVID vaccine sales.
The Cambridge-based biotech has faced revenue pressure as pandemic-era demand faded. However, Q4 results exceeded Wall Street expectations, and management reiterated its target of 10% revenue growth in 2026.
Investors appear encouraged that Moderna’s mRNA platform may have longer-term viability beyond COVID.
Rivian Surges as R2 Launch Approaches
Rivian stock surged more than 10% in after-hours trading after reporting narrower-than-expected losses.
Key numbers:
- Revenue: $1.286 billion (vs. $1.26 billion expected)
- Adjusted loss per share: $0.59 (vs. $0.69 expected)
- Adjusted EBITDA loss: $465 million (better than forecast)
Crucially, Rivian confirmed its upcoming R2 midsize EV remains on track for second-quarter deliveries.
The company also posted a second consecutive quarterly gross profit, aided by software and services revenue tied to its joint venture with Volkswagen.
Applied Materials Jumps on Memory Tailwinds
Applied Materials shares climbed roughly 9% after beating earnings and revenue estimates.
The semiconductor equipment manufacturer expects second-quarter revenue of approximately $7.65 billion, above analyst expectations of $7.01 billion.
With memory chip makers ramping capacity amid global supply shortages, Applied Materials continues to benefit from heavy AI-driven semiconductor investment.
Year-to-date, the stock is up roughly 27%.
Coinbase Posts Loss Amid Crypto Volatility
Coinbase reported a $667 million quarterly loss as crypto trading volumes retrenched.
Revenue of $1.78 billion fell slightly short of expectations. Transaction revenue also missed estimates, though management indicated $420 million in transaction revenue so far in Q1.
After an initial sell-off, shares reversed and rose modestly in extended trading.
Crypto conditions remain challenging following a 45% decline in Bitcoin over the past six months.
Pinterest Slides on Soft Outlook
Pinterest shares fell 12% in extended trading after issuing weaker-than-expected first-quarter revenue guidance.
Despite growing monthly active users to 619 million globally, advertising growth remains pressured amid competition from larger digital platforms.
Airbnb Guides Higher Despite Margin Pressure
Airbnb delivered stronger-than-expected revenue guidance for Q1, forecasting up to $2.63 billion versus estimates of $2.52 billion.
However, earnings per share missed due to heavy reinvestment in product expansion and premium experiences.
Management expects low double-digit revenue growth in 2026, though margins may remain constrained.
Broader Market Themes Remain Intact
This earnings season continues to reflect a bifurcated market:
- AI infrastructure and semiconductor plays remain strong
- Crypto-linked names face volatility
- Travel and premium consumer segments show resilience
- Advertising-sensitive platforms remain pressured
Meanwhile, mega-cap capital spending remains the defining macro force of 2026.
WSA Take
Earnings growth is accelerating — but the dispersion beneath the surface is widening.
AI infrastructure spending is lifting semiconductor equipment makers and select tech names. EV makers showing operational discipline are being rewarded. But companies tied to cyclical digital advertising or volatile crypto flows face much tighter scrutiny.
The broader takeaway:
Earnings momentum remains intact for the S&P 500.
But leadership is narrowing around AI-driven capital expenditure beneficiaries.
Investors are no longer rewarding growth alone — they are rewarding durable growth with infrastructure backing.
And for now, the AI build-out remains the market’s central engine.
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