Tesla’s Record-Breaking Quarter
Tesla (TSLA) reported blowout Q3 deliveries of 497,099 vehicles, well above Wall Street’s consensus of ~440,000. Production totaled 447,450 vehicles, while energy storage deployments also hit a record at 12.5 gigawatt-hours.
The surge was fueled by a pull-forward of demand ahead of the expiration of the federal $7,500 EV tax credit. Analysts expect the credit’s demise to weigh on Q4 and beyond, but for now Tesla investors are celebrating: shares rose in premarket trading before slipping slightly at the open.
CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson called the results “backward-looking,” cautioning that Tesla’s earnings power will be tested in a post-credit market. CEO Elon Musk has already warned of “a few rough quarters” as cheaper EV launches were delayed until subsidies phased out.
Tesla’s momentum contrasts sharply with its struggles in Europe, where August registrations fell 22.5% year-over-year. Sales plunged in France, Sweden, and Denmark, though Norway provided a rare bright spot. Musk’s polarizing politics and growing competition in the region remain hurdles.
Despite that, Tesla stock has surged 30% in September, fueled by optimism around AI and autonomy products like its upcoming Cybercab robotaxi.
Rivian Narrows Forecast, Eyes 2026
While Tesla’s quarter blew past expectations, Rivian (RIVN) moved the other way. The company cut its 2025 delivery outlook to 41,500–43,500 vehicles, down from an earlier range of up to 51,000. That’s a nearly 16% drop from 2024 sales.
The update came as Rivian reported Q3 deliveries of 13,201 vehicles, an improvement from prior quarters but still leaving full-year numbers short of last year’s total.
Rivian blames tariffs, shifting trade policy, and weakening consumer demand. Its vehicles only qualified for the U.S. subsidy when leased, meaning it didn’t get the same Q3 tax-credit sales rush as Tesla and legacy automakers.
The company is now betting heavily on its upcoming R2 SUV, slated for next year, which it hopes will unlock volume sales. Rivian is expanding its Illinois factory and building a new Georgia facility to support production of the R2 and R3.
The Bigger Picture: EV Market in Flux
- Policy risk: Shifting tariffs and subsidy rollbacks are reshaping demand, with some automakers delaying or canceling EV launches.
- Competitive dynamics: U.S. pure plays like Tesla and Rivian face rising competition from Chinese EV manufacturers in Europe.
- Investor sentiment: Tesla’s record quarter may reinforce the bull case for EV adoption, but Rivian’s caution underscores how uneven the transition remains.
WSA Take
Tesla’s record quarter shows the power of subsidies to pull forward demand — and the risks when they disappear. Rivian’s cut guidance is an early warning that not every EV maker can thrive in a post-credit landscape.
For investors, the contrast is clear: Tesla is winning on scale and autonomy bets, while Rivian is still proving it can cross the chasm to mass-market adoption.
If you missed our recent coverage on the Microsoft 365 Premium AI launch, it highlights how tech giants are reshaping consumer markets even as autos navigate policy headwinds. For more insights, visit the Wall Street Access homepage.
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