Wall Street on Edge as Fed Decision Looms Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions

Taylor Miller

June 18, 2025

Key Points

  • Markets flat ahead of the Fed’s highly anticipated rate decision; investors expect rates to hold steady.

  • Middle East tensions and rising oil prices weigh heavily on equities and investor sentiment.

  • Powell’s tone and dot plot projections are likely to set the tone for summer trading.

U.S. stock futures remained largely unchanged Tuesday night as investors brace for the Federal Reserve’s rate policy announcement expected Wednesday afternoon. The Dow dipped slightly by 7 points, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures nudged just above the flatline.

Markets are digesting a cocktail of risks, with geopolitical instability in the Middle East intensifying. A sharp uptick in oil prices—up more than 4%—amplified investor concerns about global supply shocks. The Dow lost 299 points in Tuesday’s session, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both fell close to 1%.

The Fed is widely anticipated to hold interest rates steady, but attention is squarely on Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary and the updated dot plot—an insight into how policymakers see the path for rates through year-end.

Simultaneously, heightened rhetoric from former President Donald Trump toward Iran has rattled markets. His latest message on Truth Social called for “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” adding another layer of uncertainty as officials consider military options.

“Markets were already stretched with rich valuations and a foggy macro outlook,” said Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge on CNBC. “Throw in geopolitical threats, and the cushion for error is razor thin.”

Investors will also digest May’s housing starts, preliminary building permits, and weekly jobless claims on Wednesday. Markets will be closed Thursday in observance of the Juneteenth holiday.

U.S. stock futures remained largely unchanged Tuesday night as investors brace for the Federal Reserve’s rate policy announcement expected Wednesday afternoon. The Dow dipped slightly by 7 points, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures nudged just above the flatline.

Author

Taylor Miller

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