A Relief Rally Into Month-End
U.S. stocks climbed on Black Friday as traders closed out a choppy November defined by AI fatigue, shifting rate expectations, and sector rotation.
- Nasdaq Composite: +0.6%
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.6%
- S&P 500: +0.5% (fifth straight session of gains)
For the shortened holiday session, the tone was decisively risk-on. The bounce capped a strong week driven by renewed confidence that the Federal Reserve is positioned to cut interest rates at its December meeting — now less than two weeks away.
But despite the week’s strength, the month told a different story.
Tech Loses Steam, Breaking the Streak
After seven consecutive winning months, the Nasdaq Composite ended November nearly 2% lower, pressured by:
- A cooldown in megacap AI names
- Profit-taking after a record stretch
- Growing investor scrutiny over AI monetization timelines
The S&P 500 also slipped 0.6% in November, ending a six-month streak of gains.
The Dow finished roughly flat.
The standout exception was Alphabet, which gained ~13% on deepening enthusiasm around its Gemini AI platform and custom AI chips — one of the few Big Tech names that held firm during November’s tech unwind.
Macroeconomic Crosscurrents and a CME Outage
Friday morning also saw the CME restore trading operations after a global outage froze futures and options trading — affecting U.S. Treasurys, crude oil, and rates markets. The interruption lifted just ahead of the U.S. open.
With no major economic releases scheduled for the day and markets closing at 1 p.m. ET, investors instead focused on early 2026 projections:
- Deutsche Bank: S&P 500 to 8,000
- HSBC & JPMorgan: Target near 7,500
A wide range — reflecting the uncertainty in a market driven heavily by rates, AI expectations, and election-year volatility.
Rotation into Defensive Sectors
While tech faced pressure, capital rotated toward traditionally defensive areas such as Healthcare.
Other asset moves:
- Bitcoin: Stabilized near ~$91,000 after a steep 19% monthly decline
- Gold: Near $4,200/oz, marking a fourth straight month of gains as investors hedge for rate cuts and rising fiscal spending heading into 2026
WSA Take
This month reinforced a theme we’ve been tracking closely: markets are becoming more selective within the AI trade. Investors are now distinguishing between companies with real monetization pathways and those still running on narrative alone.
At the same time, rate-cut expectations and commodity strength — especially in gold and copper — continue to signal a shift toward hard-asset hedging and cyclical upside.
Read our most recent coverage on AI Data Centers Driving an Aluminum Crunch.
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