Shutdown Ends, but Markets Brace for the Aftermath
US equities sold off Thursday as Wall Street digested the end of the longest federal shutdown in American history—and the economic uncertainty that now follows.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.8%, the S&P 500 slipped 1.2%, and the Dow lost nearly 1%, giving back its recent record-setting gains.
Tech stocks led the decline, with Nvidia sliding 4% amid continued rotation into lower-valued sectors. Disney plunged 9% after weak earnings, pulling the Dow lower, while Tesla sank more than 6%.
In Washington, the shutdown officially ended after a 222–209 House vote and a signature from the president. The 43-day stoppage will likely leave economic scars. The Congressional Budget Office estimates US GDP could end up $11 billion lower by 2026 compared to pre-shutdown projections.
Missing Economic Data Complicates the Fed’s Path
Markets are now focused on what happens next—and the picture is murky.
The White House said several key October reports delayed by the shutdown will be “permanently impaired” and may never be released. That includes critical data on inflation and the labor market. Officials suggested the October jobs report may arrive without the unemployment rate.
This data gap introduces new uncertainty for the Federal Reserve, which is already navigating mixed signals and rising disagreement among policymakers. As a result, traders now assign roughly 50% odds of a December rate cut, down sharply from nearly 95% just one month ago.
The lack of visibility makes it harder for markets to price risk, and Thursday’s sell-off reflected the tension building at the intersection of policy, data, and expectations.
Corporate Highlights: Cisco Shines
Amid the declines, Cisco posted one of the session’s few bright spots.
Shares climbed more than 4% after the company reported progress capturing AI-related enterprise and hyperscaler demand.
Stronger-than-expected earnings led Cisco to raise its full-year profit and revenue forecasts, beating analyst estimates.
WSA Take
Markets are entering a period defined by missing data, shifting expectations, and heightened policy risk. The shutdown is over, but the absence of official economic reports leaves investors flying partially blind heading into the December Fed meeting.
Sector rotation continues to pressure Big Tech, and recent volatility shows how quickly sentiment can swing when foundational data is unavailable. Expect elevated chop until the market regains clarity on inflation, labor conditions, and the Fed’s next move.
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