Moving has become an expensive decision
For many homeowners, the costliest part of moving is giving up the mortgage they already have.
A bigger home or a shorter commute has to justify replacing an old, low-rate loan with a much more expensive one. Increasingly, households are staying put.
Existing-home sales fell 5.5% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million, the lowest since August 2010. Transactions were 8.8% below a year earlier.
That annualized figure describes October’s selling pace extended over a year, with seasonal adjustments.
Housing’s slowdown is showing up in fewer transactions while prices remain stubbornly high. This preserves wealth for some owners but leaves buyers struggling—and squeezes businesses that earn money when homes change hands.
The monthly payment is doing the damage
There has been some relief in borrowing costs.
Freddie Mac’s latest survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.11% on November 12, down from 7.18% a week earlier. It was the fourth consecutive weekly decline.
The distance from the cheap mortgages of earlier years remains considerable.
For illustration, a $350,000 loan over 30 years carries monthly principal and interest of approximately $1,476 at 3%, compared with $2,354 at 7.11%. That is roughly $879 more each month, before taxes, insurance or other ownership costs.
The comparison holds the loan amount and term constant. It shows why even a similarly priced home can become much harder to finance.
Researchers call the resulting reluctance to move mortgage-rate lock-in. A Federal Reserve study, revised in 2025, attributed 44% of the decline in mortgage-borrower mobility from 2021 to 2022 to that effect.
That historical estimate does not measure today’s slowdown. It helps explain the mechanism: higher rates discourage buyers and make existing owners reluctant sellers.
Mortgage rates, builder incentives and signed contracts offer different clues about where housing is heading. Wall Street Access follows how those signals reach company earnings and the wider economy.
See What the Housing Slowdown Means for Wall Street
More homes to choose from, still difficult to afford
A quiet market would be easier for buyers to navigate if prices were falling enough to compensate.
Instead, the national median existing-home price reached $416,700 in October, up 0.4% from a year earlier. The median reflects the mix of homes sold, so it does not mean every property gained value.
Supply is improving. There were 1.59 million homes available, equivalent to 5.1 months of sales, up from 4.4 months a year earlier.
That gives buyers more choice. Part of the increase in months’ supply, however, reflects the slower selling pace. More time to choose does little for a household whose monthly payment still fails the affordability test.
Forced selling also remains limited: distressed transactions accounted for just 2% of sales, according to NAR.
Owners who can wait retain that option. Brokers, mortgage originators and title businesses still need completed transactions to generate fees. A homeowner’s ability to sit tight can become a housing company’s missing revenue.
Builders can respond, but concessions have a cost
New-home builders have more ways to influence a sale than an individual homeowner does. They can adjust incentives, pricing and the pace of construction across communities.
D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) said it was making those adjustments as higher rates and affordability constraints pressured demand.
Its fiscal fourth-quarter net sales orders fell 7%, while cancellations rose to 23% from 20% a year earlier. Management expects incentives to remain elevated in fiscal 2027.
Those results cover new homes and a quarter ending September 30; October’s resale report measures a different market and period. Together, they show affordability pressure reaching both.
The capacity to offer concessions helps keep homes moving. It also raises the question of how much profit remains on each sale.
NAR’s November 18 report on October pending sales, which tracks signed contracts, will provide an earlier view of activity than completed sales. The next existing-home report follows on December 9.
A recovery will become more convincing when lower financing costs bring buyers and sellers back to the same table—and more of those meetings end with a contract.
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