Sports give prediction markets a recurring business
Polymarket’s latest growth story is being written on the sports calendar.
The company says its annualized revenue has surpassed $1.8 billion, following a run rate above $1 billion disclosed in June. Its U.S. exchange, which opened broadly to domestic users in May, has become a major growth engine.
The World Cup helped draw activity over the summer. The NFL season brought another stream of events in September, giving customers fresh outcomes to trade week after week.
Sports are giving prediction markets a recurring business beyond election cycles. As that business grows, permission to serve U.S. customers becomes increasingly valuable—and regulatory uncertainty becomes harder to separate from the growth story.
The revenue figure describes the current pace projected across a year. It is not $1.8 billion already collected over twelve months, and it does not establish profitability.
Combo contracts are changing the shape of trading
The strongest sign of that shift is the popularity of Combos, which accounted for more than 70% of Polymarket’s volume on Sunday.
These bundle several outcomes into one position, resembling sportsbook parlays. Polymarket explains that every leg must resolve correctly for a Combo to win.
For the platform, that creates another way to bring sports fans into trading. For customers, combining outcomes increases the chance that one incorrect result wipes out the position.
The scale is growing quickly. October’s U.S. notional volume exceeded $14.5 billion, compared with approximately $4 billion in June, according to TickerTracker figures cited in the report.
But notional volume needs context. TickerTracker counts contracts at their full potential payout value. A contract purchased for 10 cents that pays $1 if correct contributes $1 to volume.
That distinction becomes particularly relevant as combination bets gain popularity. Rising notional volume does not translate dollar for dollar into customer spending, deposits or platform revenue.
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The growth is already reaching listed financial companies
Polymarket remains privately held, but prediction markets are becoming a measurable business for public companies.
Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) reported $173 million in third-quarter event-contract revenue, up more than sixfold year over year. Its equities transaction revenue was $121 million.
Event contracts therefore generated more transaction revenue than stock trading during the quarter. That is a meaningful shift in how a retail brokerage earns money.
Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) has a different exposure: ownership and distribution.
The NYSE parent invested another $600 million in Polymarket in March, following a $1 billion investment in October 2025. Its original agreement also included global distribution of Polymarket’s event-driven data.
Those are different commercial relationships. Robinhood collects revenue from customer activity; ICE has capital invested in Polymarket and a route to supplying its data to institutional customers.
ICE has said its investments are not expected to materially affect its financial results, putting that exposure in perspective.
U.S. access carries the next business risk
Polymarket’s domestic exchange operates separately from its international blockchain-based platform. That separation is important to the regulatory story.
CNBC has described a CFTC investigation covering advertising practices and compliance with the company’s earlier settlement, including questions about U.S. residents’ access to the international venue.
The historical enforcement action is established. In 2022, the CFTC imposed a $1.4 million penalty for offering unregistered event-based contracts and required noncompliant markets to be wound down.
The reported current investigation does not establish a new violation or determine an outcome. Its commercial significance lies in whether scrutiny produces changes to customer access, advertising or available products.
Polymarket has demonstrated a growing appetite for prediction trading. The next test is whether it can sustain that revenue pace while satisfying the regulator overseeing its expanding U.S. business.
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