The next payment matters more than the headline amount
USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) fell 9.5% on Thursday, two days after Democrats won both chambers of Congress. It was a rough day across Wall Street, with the S&P 500 down 4.4%. For minerals developers, the election brought a more specific question into focus. How soon can they count on the money Washington has promised?
Lawmakers were already asking how agencies picked the companies they backed. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and colleagues sought records about Cantor Fitzgerald’s role as lead placement agent on USA Rare Earth’s separate $1.5 billion private stock offering. The firm is led by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s sons. With control of both chambers, Democrats can press agencies for records and push for tighter conditions on future spending. Senate letters
Our point is that closer scrutiny poses the biggest risk to developers that need their next federal payment to stay on schedule. If an approval takes longer than expected, a company may have to issue shares, bring in a partner or push back construction. For shareholders, a delay can change how much of the project they ultimately own.
A Nevada lithium project shows how the terms can change
Lithium Americas (NYSE: LAC) closed a $2.26 billion federal loan in 2024 to help build Thacker Pass in Nevada. The first $435 million arrived nearly a year later, after the Energy Department and the company amended the agreement. Washington received warrants in Lithium Americas and its project joint venture with General Motors. By June 2026, the first three advances totaled $1.21 billion. Lithium Americas’ quarterly filing
Thacker Pass kept its federal backing through a change in administrations, but the deal changed before the cash moved. There’s still a strong reason for Congress to support the buildout. China accounted for 91% of global refined output of magnet rare earths in 2024. The International Energy Agency estimates that diversifying those supply chains will take about $60 billion in public and private investment over a decade. IEA rare earth supply-chain analysis
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A price floor does a different job
MP Materials (NYSE: MP) has a Pentagon agreement that covers the shortfall when the benchmark for eligible neodymium-praseodymium products falls below $110 per kilogram. It booked $68 million in price-protection income in the first nine months of 2026. That agreement helps cushion the business when rare earth prices weaken. MP Materials’ quarterly filing
MP also said Thursday that its magnets had cleared General Motors’ qualification process and that it expects commercial deliveries to begin this quarter. Those shipments are the next sign that investment in U.S. magnet manufacturing is turning into sales.
USA Rare Earth faces its next test on November 9
USA Rare Earth announced preliminary terms in January and signed definitive agreements in June. The package includes up to $277 million in direct funding and $1.3 billion in federally guaranteed borrowing. As of June 30, the company had received no payments or loan advances under the package. Commerce award
Other projects have more steps to clear. Vulcan Elements’ $620 million Pentagon loan commitment came with due diligence requirements before closing. Cove Kaz disclosed letters of interest for up to $1.6 billion in potential U.S. support for its Kazakhstan tungsten project.
When USA Rare Earth reports after the close on November 9, we’ll be watching for how much federal cash has arrived and what the company has to finish before it can draw more.
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