Tesla’s Next Test in Texas Is the 30-Cent Robotaxi Mile

Paul Jackson

November 6, 2026

Key Points

  • Tesla plans to wind down Cybertruck production in Texas around mid-2027 to make room for more Cybercabs

 

  • U.S. Cybertruck sales fell 48% in 2025, then dropped another 28% year over year through September 2026, according to Cox Automotive estimates

 

  • Tesla is targeting a cost of 30 cents per paid robotaxi mile, a goal management says it has yet to reach

Tesla is making room for cars it plans to keep

Tesla wants more factory space for a car it expects to own long after it rolls off the line. On Friday, Elon Musk said Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) would wind down Cybertruck production at Gigafactory Texas around the middle of 2027 to build more Cybercabs. Texas is the only place Tesla makes the pickup.

Musk expects Tesla to keep most Cybercabs for its own ride-hailing service. That changes how Tesla earns back the money it spends building them. Every car the company keeps has to earn its keep through fares.

Our thesis is that the factory shift turns on how many paid miles Tesla can get out of each Cybercab. A bigger fleet could make pickups faster and cheaper in busy areas. Where bookings lag, Tesla could spend more on cars that sit idle.

The factory is already built for a much bigger fleet

Cox Automotive estimates Tesla sold 20,237 Cybertrucks in the U.S. in 2025, down from 38,965 in 2024. It counted 11,586 through September 2026. The pickup was still losing ground nearly three years after its debut.

Tesla already lists installed capacity for more than 125,000 Cybercabs a year in Texas. State motor vehicle figures put about 570 Cybercabs in operation there, out of more than 1,200 Tesla robotaxis. One figure describes what the factory is equipped to build each year. The other shows how early the rollout still is. Tesla’s quarterly update

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An empty mile still costs money

In October, Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja said the company was getting more use out of its fleet in its main markets. He also said costs were still above the 30-cent target. Tesla’s October earnings call

A car crossing town to pick someone up uses power and wears down its tires before the fare begins. Charging, cleaning and maintenance also take cars out of service. Put more cars where riders are already booking and the next pickup could be a few blocks away. Add cars faster than bookings grow and Tesla could have more capital tied up in a fleet that spends more time parked.

Dallas is the next place to test it

Tesla plans to bring Cybercab to Dallas in November, where it already offers rides in Model Ys. Federal safety officials are also examining how Tesla certified a car without a steering wheel or pedals. The outcome could affect how quickly Tesla can put more Cybercabs on the road. Federal safety inquiry

Once Dallas is live, we’ll be watching whether paid trips per vehicle hold up as the fleet grows and whether those rides bring Tesla closer to 30 cents per paid mile.

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Author

Paul Jackson

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